100% Solar, Wind, Batteries (SWB) are Already Here
Energy and raw materials are not scarce in any fundamental sense. The earth receives more energy from the sun in one hour that our entire civilization consumes in one year. Within the planet’s crust and oceans there are trillions of tons of almost every element we need.
As any new technology like solar, wind and batteries become more capable, public acceptance grows and shifts from skepticism to enthusiasm. A decade ago, we could not imagine we would have the green energy tools we have today with solar, wind and battery technologies. So as the cost and capability of the new technology improves, it attracts more investment. If the technology is able to scale as all three of these are able to do, the cost of implemention comes down, and it’s usage increases. At the same time, the older technologies such as oil, coal and gas begin to decline.
As an example, the coal industry in the United States has collapsed in the last decade. Looking at the Dow Jones U.S. Coal Index, which tracks the stock market value of coal, reached it’s peak in 2011 with a high of over 500. The index then fell 99% to under 5 by 2020. And in September 2020, the index itself was discontinued. This once-giant industry has been decimated by the newer disruptive technogies of SWB. So, the lesson should be clear that even large industries can quickly decline when disruption strikes. In September of 2019, 130 banks with a combined $47 trillion in assets announced they would cease lending to fossil fuel companies.
So, inspite of the skepticism from environmentalists and incumbent interests, the data show that SWB has already begun to meet 100% of electricity demand for part of the year in many regions.
This is happening at scales in the entire state of California to the city of Mumbai to remote Aboriginal communities. In 2023, South Australia was powered by only solar and wind for at least part of the day on 282 days of the year. It’s on track to produce all its annual electricity from SWB by 2028.
A recent analysis by Argonne and NREL has shown it is even possible to host 100% SWB in the South Pole cutting diesel usage by 95%.
In the United States, SWB will make up 94% of new capacity additions in 2024 bringing the total percentage of electricity generated by solar and wind power to 18% and still growing exponentially, something that seemed like science fiction just over a decade ago.
In China the progress is nothing short of astonishing, where solar and wind are slated to compromise 40% of total power generation capacity by the end of 2024.
Solar, wind, and battery technologies are already here and are growing exponentially worldwide, putting leading regions on track to 100% SWB by 2030 and most of the world’s populated regions to zero carbon electricity before 2040.